Blog

Writing about product strategy, AI workflows, and building in public.

accountability agent-economy agents AI ai ai-native-pm architecture automation building-in-public burnout calibration career case-studies checkpoints cognitive-science confidence-thresholds decision-making deployment deterministic-probabilistic domain-applications economics education engineering ethics execution failure fastapi fiction finance frameworks full-stack full-stack-pm future-of-work healthcare labor labor-market law leadership life metrics operational org-design p-work performance-management personal-brand pm-multiverse product product-management product-thinking productivity psychology regulation risk-management startups strategy team-design technology

May 2026

2 posts

The Psychology of P: Why Is Probabilistic Work So Cognitively Demanding?

May 12, 2026 · 7 min read

P work isn't just harder than D work. It's harder in a specific way that the brain wasn't optimized for. Understanding the psychology is the first step to managing it — and to designing AI-assisted work that doesn't quietly erode the people doing it.

AI cognitive-science product-management deterministic-probabilistic burnout decision-making psychology

P Work Across Domains: Where Should the Checkpoint Go in Healthcare, Law, Finance, and Product?

May 05, 2026 · 7 min read

The right place to put a human checkpoint varies dramatically by domain. Healthcare, law, finance, and product each have different cost-of-error curves, different regulatory contexts, and different failure modes — which means the checkpoint logic has to be designed differently for each.

AI product-management deterministic-probabilistic checkpoints healthcare finance law education domain-applications

April 2026

6 posts

The Fate of D Work: What Happens to Everyone Doing Deterministic Tasks?

Apr 28, 2026 · 8 min read

Not everyone wants to shift to P work. Not everyone can. And the answer to 'just upskill' is easier to say than to do. What actually happens to the people whose work AI absorbs first?

AI future-of-work economics deterministic-probabilistic labor-market automation career

Measuring P Work: How Do You Know If Someone Is Good at Probabilistic Thinking?

Apr 21, 2026 · 8 min read

You can't measure P work with throughput metrics. Decision quality is hard to observe, slow to validate, and easy to confuse with confidence. Here's what actually works.

AI product-management deterministic-probabilistic p-work performance-management calibration metrics

The Ethics of the Human Checkpoint: Who's Responsible When AI Fails?

Apr 14, 2026 · 7 min read

When a human approves bad AI output, is it the human's fault or the system's? The accountability question in human-in-the-loop AI is messier than anyone wants to admit — and regulators are starting to notice.

AI ethics product-management deterministic-probabilistic accountability regulation law

2031 — Part 5: Who Does It Work For?

Apr 13, 2026 · 6 min read

The final part. Kai considers switching agents but the switching cost is too high. The window to regulate is open. But it won't stay open. What can individuals, builders, and society actually do?

AI agent-economy fiction economics future-of-work

When P Goes Wrong: Case Studies of Catastrophic Probabilistic Failures

Apr 07, 2026 · 8 min read

P work failures aren't like bugs. They're like slow leaks — coherent, confident, and compounding until something breaks at scale. Five case studies of what catastrophic probabilistic failure actually looks like, and what was missed.

AI product-management deterministic-probabilistic p-work risk-management case-studies failure

2031 — Part 4: The Number

Apr 06, 2026 · 6 min read

Kai runs an audit tool. The number comes back: $340/day in extraction. $124,000 over a working lifetime. Nothing illegal happened. That's the problem.

AI agent-economy fiction economics future-of-work

March 2026

15 posts

The Economics of P: Who Gets Paid What When D Gets Cheaper?

Mar 31, 2026 · 17 min read

When AI automates the deterministic layer, the market for D skills reprices fast. What's less obvious is what happens to P — why the premium is real, why it has a ceiling D never had, and what the labor market looks like when both are true.

AI economics future-of-work product-management deterministic-probabilistic labor-market career

2031 — Part 3: Wanting Things

Mar 30, 2026 · 6 min read

A year in. Kai's agent has been surfacing the same laptop for weeks. The preference feels personal. But who actually formed it? The emergence of Agent Engine Optimization (AEO).

AI agent-economy fiction economics future-of-work

Organizational Structures for P Dominance: What Does a Company Look Like When Judgment Is the Constraint?

Mar 26, 2026 · 16 min read

Traditional org charts were engineered to move D work efficiently. When judgment becomes the bottleneck instead of execution, the entire structural logic inverts — and most companies haven't noticed yet.

AI product-management deterministic-probabilistic p-work org-design leadership strategy

2031 — Part 2: The Drift

Mar 22, 2026 · 5 min read

Six months in, Kai's agent has a personality now. Then a restaurant gets recommended to two people with different agents. Probably just popular. These things happen.

AI agent-economy fiction economics future-of-work

2031 — Part 1: Everything Works

Mar 17, 2026 · 5 min read

A morning in 2031. Kai's agent handles everything — groceries, commute, dentist, insurance. It all feels like magic. They saved $43. They don't know what wasn't saved.

AI agent-economy fiction economics future-of-work

Building Gets Easy. Selling Gets Brutal.

Mar 15, 2026 · 8 min read

AI is collapsing the cost of building digital products. That's not the story. The story is what happens to selling when everyone can build — and why the platforms always win when supply explodes.

AI product-management economics startups strategy

The Speed Drug: What a 19th-Century Economist Tells Us About Throttling AI's Most Productive Users

Mar 11, 2026 · 10 min read

Every time we've made a productive tool more efficient, we used more of it, not less. AI is no different — except this time the tool is augmenting thinking itself. That changes what happens when you restrict it, and what happens even when you don't.

AI productivity economics technology future-of-work

The Productivity Paradox: Why Technology Makes the Economy More Efficient But Most People No Richer

Mar 10, 2026 · 9 min read

Every decade, technology makes us dramatically more productive. Every decade, GDP growth slows. These two facts should not coexist — and understanding why they do reveals the defining economic tension of our era.

economics technology AI labor product-thinking

Building Teams for P Work: Hiring, Structuring, and Managing Probabilistic Work

Mar 09, 2026 · 18 min read

If P work is the new bottleneck, your team model has to change: who you hire, how you structure ownership, how decisions get made, and what you measure.

AI product-management deterministic-probabilistic p-work team-design leadership org-design

P Work Thresholds, Case Studies, and Your Implementation Checklist

Mar 08, 2026 · 16 min read

When to stop checking, when to keep going, and what actually changes when AI takes over the deterministic layer. Case studies and an implementation checklist.

AI product-management deterministic-probabilistic p-work confidence-thresholds operational

The Three Types of P Work Failures and Where to Put Your Human Checkpoints

Mar 06, 2026 · 11 min read

Hallucinations, misunderstandings, and drift — the three types of P work failures, and exactly where to put your human checkpoints to catch each one.

AI product-management deterministic-probabilistic p-work risk-management

More P = More Burnout: The Hidden Cost of AI Doing Your D Work

Mar 04, 2026 · 10 min read

AI is offloading your deterministic work. Great. But what's left is concentrated probabilistic work — the kind that exhausts humans and compounds risk exponentially across every layer of decision-making.

product-management ai ai-native-pm burnout career

When AI Masters D, P Becomes Your Career Leverage

Mar 03, 2026 · 9 min read

As AI masters deterministic execution, the real leverage shifts to probabilistic work — where ambiguity is the job, errors compound, and someone has to own the consequences.

product-management ai ai-native-pm career strategy

Life in D/P: Your Entire Life Is a Mix of Deterministic and Probabilistic Steps

Mar 02, 2026 · 11 min read

Your morning routine is D→D→D. A job interview is P. Parenting is P→P→P with no guardrails. The D/P framework isn't just for AI products — it's how everything works.

product-management ai ai-native-pm frameworks life

The D/P Framework: Why Every AI Product Is a Mix of Deterministic and Probabilistic Steps

Mar 01, 2026 · 10 min read

Your AI product isn't 'AI-powered.' It's a specific combination of deterministic and probabilistic steps — and knowing which is which changes every decision you make as a PM.

product-management ai ai-native-pm architecture frameworks

February 2026

7 posts

What Is an AI Agent, Really?

Feb 28, 2026 · 9 min read

Everyone's building 'AI agents.' Most of them are just prompts with a loop. Here's what actually makes something an agent — and a walkthrough of how a prompt graduates into one.

ai product-management ai-native-pm agents building-in-public

How I Built PM Multiverse in a Weekend

Feb 25, 2026 · 10 min read

I was tired of PM case studies that feel like homework. So I built a tool where 5 AI personas argue about real product problems — and you vote on who's right. Here's how.

product-management ai building-in-public full-stack-pm pm-multiverse

What Is an AI-Native PM? (And Why It's Not What You Think)

Feb 24, 2026 · 10 min read

Everyone's adding 'AI' to their LinkedIn title. But being an AI-native PM isn't about using ChatGPT for your PRDs. It's a fundamentally different way of thinking about products, teams, and decisions.

product-management ai career ai-native-pm leadership

What Is a Full Stack PM?

Feb 20, 2026 · 2 min read

The next generation of great product managers won't just manage — they'll build.

product-management ai career

How I Built fullstackpm.tech — From Idea to Live in 48 Hours

Feb 15, 2026 · 10 min read

The complete journey of building a portfolio website from scratch: architecture decisions, deployment nightmares, and why being a Full Stack PM means shipping your own products.

product engineering deployment full-stack fastapi personal-brand

Why I'm Building in Public as a Product Manager

Feb 15, 2026 · 2 min read

What changed when I started sharing my roadmap, experiments, and trade-offs in the open.

ai building-in-public product-management

The Birth of the Full Stack PM

Feb 09, 2026 · 5 min read

The product manager role is quietly transforming. The best PMs in 2026 don't just coordinate—they build, experiment, and ship.

product-management full-stack-pm strategy execution leadership